Arctic Seafood Conference 2025: Demand in Focus

As Norway’s second-largest export industry continues to evolve at high speed, this year’s program centred on one core question: Where is demand heading next?

Supported by a special report from BCG and a full day of executive discussions, the conference delivered a clear message: Global demand for salmon remains strong, but its drivers and regional dynamics are undergoing important shifts.

China: Structural Demand Strength Ahead

One of the most discussed topics was China, where salmon demand has surged at an exceptional pace. What lies behind this acceleration? According to the analysis presented, China has recently built large, specialized salmon processing facilities—equipment that cannot easily be repurposed for other species. This signals long-term commitment.

Favourable freight dynamics have added further fuel to demand. Fully loaded Temu flights from China to Europe are returning with salmon, temporarily pushing freight costs to China down toward truck-transport levels to Southern Europe, an improvement of up to NOK 10/kg. Demand may soften if salmon prices approach NOK 90/kg next year, but the structural signals remain positive. 

United States: A More Complex Picture

The U.S. market presents a less straightforward outlook. Recent tariffs on salmon—while other major proteins have been exempt—create uncertainty for demand elasticity as prices rise. Meanwhile, retailers have enjoyed strong salmon margins through 2025, a trend BCG expects to partially reverse in 2026.

“Retail margins recovered nicely in 2025, but the industry expects some margin compression next year as higher prices and tariffs work their way through the value chain,” noted Nordby.

Chilean supply into the U.S. remains competitive, adding another layer of complexity for Norwegian exporters, who continue to rely on branding attributes such as “antibiotic-free salmon from Norway” to capture value.

Supply Outlook: Modest Growth Across Major Regions

Conference discussions underscored the expectation of modest global supply growth in the coming years—an important backdrop for pricing and margin forecasts.

• Chile, producing roughly 30% of global farmed salmon, is entering what may be a stronger biological and operational period. With production growth expected next year and significantly lower capital intensity than Norway, several presenters—including Mowi—highlighted the region’s long-term potential.

• Norway showcased a mixed but overall positive outlook. Northern Norway is experiencing exceptional biological performance and is expected to post strong cost numbers into 2026. Central Norway has battled sea lice challenges, but improved conditions and large Frøya volumes entering 2026 should narrow the cost gap between regions.

• Faroe Islands continue to impress, with record-strong biology and the new Bakkafossur wellboat proving to be a highly effective investment. Biomass was up 33% year-on-year in Q3, pointing to volume growth in 2026.

• Scotland may finally be approaching a long-awaited turning point. Mowi has delivered strong results over time, while Bakkafrost’s new Applecross smolt facility is showing early signs of excellent performance. Many investors will watch Q1 results closely to see if this translates into sustainably stronger growth.

A Successful Gathering (and a Market at an Important Juncture)

The 2025 Seafood Conference demonstrated once again why it remains a key meeting place for global investors, producers, and industry experts. The mood was constructive but realistic: demand fundamentals look strong, particularly in Asia; supply growth is expected to remain modest; and retailers may face margin pressure as prices rise into 2026.

Arctic Securities thanks all participants and speakers for contributing to a highly insightful and forward-looking conference. We look forward to seeing everyone again next year.